Nuclear weapons
Nuclear war is the fastest route to civilisational collapse we know how to build. The risk depends on three things: tension between nuclear powers, weapons ready to launch, and the rules that restrain both. Each can be measured, and each is moving.
Why it is in scope
The pathway is direct: nuclear weapons used at scale are the one route to civilisational collapse that could unfold in hours. We cover the events that raise or lower the probability: arms-control treaties, arsenal changes, crises between nuclear-armed states, and the technical and political safeguards between a crisis and a launch. A sourced article on the consequences of a large exchange, including the scientific estimates of nuclear winter and famine, is planned.
Articles
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The Long Retreat from the Brink, and the Turn Back
New START has lapsed and a modelled risk index is back to its 1983 level. How the danger came down for three decades, why it stopped falling, and which levers are still available.
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Beyond the treaties: the American build-up
A closed review of nuclear options, a plutonium-pit push, a $1.2 trillion missile shield and weapons acknowledged in orbit.
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China's arsenal steps into the open
State television acknowledges the silo fields, a submarine missile flies into the South Pacific, and "strategic stability" goes undefined.
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A path to enrichment: the US–Saudi nuclear deal
A civil nuclear deal opens a path to uranium enrichment without the strongest inspections.
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Keeping AI out of the launch decision
The nuclear powers agree a human must decide. Experts warn the harder risk is AI shaping what that human sees.
Key numbers
| Measure | Latest | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Warheads in military stockpiles, January 2026 | 9,745 (about 130 more than a year earlier) | SIPRI Yearbook 2026 |
| Total inventory including retired warheads | about 12,187 | SIPRI Yearbook 2026 |
| Warheads on high operational alert | 2,100–2,200 | SIPRI Yearbook 2026 |
| Chinese stockpile | 620, up from 600 | SIPRI Yearbook 2026 |
| Doomsday Clock | 85 seconds to midnight (January 2026) | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |
| US–Russia treaty limits | None since New START expired on 5 February 2026 | Multiple |